BACKGROUND

The Center for Economic Development and Business Research (CEDBR), part of the W. Frank Barton School of Business at Wichita State University, collected these predictions from business professionals across Kansas following the Kansas Economic Outlook Conference on October 5, 2017. The resulting winner will be announced at next year’s conference and will receive a complimentary registration to that event. Overall results of all the predictions are shown below and at www.SP500.cedbr.org.

ACTUAL S&P 500 INDEX

PREDICTED VALUE ON AUGUST 31, 2018

The contestants in CEDBR’s S&P 500 Prediction Challenge each gave a prediction for the value of the S&P 500 stock market index on August 31st, 2018.  As of November 5th, the closing date for entries into the Challenge, the S&P 500 index was valued at 2,587.  The median prediction among the contestants for the S&P 500 Index is 2,663.58 points.  On average, contestants predicted that the S&P 500 will increase by 3 percent over the next ten months, after the index increased by 14.6 percent this year to date.

Approximately 60 percent of the contestants predicted that the stock market would increase in 2018 over its November 2017 value.  Many of their predictions were more bullish than major analysts forecast for 2018.  Recently, analysts at Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup forecast the S&P 500 to reach 2,500 points, 2,600 points, and 2,675 points, respectively, in 2018. The Federal Reserve Board has forecast continued economic growth in 2018, with modest inflationary expectations and a half point increase in the Federal Funds rate projected.

S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Responses

August 31st, 2018 Forecast

November 3rd, 2017

Predicted Change

Median

2,663

2,587

+79

Mean

2,584

2,587

-3

Minimum

1,772

2,587

-815

Maximum

3,065

2,587

+478